Introduction

Every bettor — beginner or pro — faces the same big question:

“Favourite par bet karun ya underdog par?”

Because this single decision decides:

• your winning percentage

• your long-term profits

• your bankroll health

• your opportunities for big payouts

In every sport — IPL, UFC, football, tennis, NBA, cricket — odds always tell you one thing:

FAVOURITE = Safe
UNDERDOG = Value

But the truth is far deeper.

This GamblingHood Exclusive 2026 guide breaks down:

• Should you bet favourites in 2026?

• Should you bet underdogs?

• Which gives more profit?

• What do professional bettors actually do?

• What traps kill most beginners?

• What strategy actually works?

This is REAL insider-style analysis — not the typical “safe vs risky” nonsense found on random blogs.

Understanding Favourites & Underdogs

First, let’s simplify.

FAVOURITE

A favourite is the team/player expected to win:

• Lower odds

• Higher probability

• Safer outcome

• Lower payout

Example:
Odds like 1.40, 1.60, 1.75
(Means you win ₹40–₹75 on ₹100)

UNDERDOG

An underdog is the weaker side:

• Higher odds

• Lower probability

• Risky outcome

• Huge payouts

Example:
Odds like 3.20, 4.50, 7.00
(You win ₹320–₹700 on ₹100)

Now the real fight begins:
What wins more money?

Why Bettors Love Favourites

1. Favourites Win More Often

In almost every sport:

• 60–75% favourites win

• Some leagues even 80%

• Close spreads usually favour favourites

Psychology says:
People like betting on winners.

2. Emotional Safety

Betting on favourites feels less stressful:

• “Ye toh jitne wali team hai.”

• “Player world no.1 hai.”

• “Form mein hai.”

Your brain feels secure.

3. Small but More Frequent Wins

Favourites won’t make you rich instantly,
but they give stability.

Example:
If 3 favourites at 1.50 win, your 100 → 337.

Not huge, but consistent.

4. Sharp bettors use favourites for protection

Professionals sometimes bet favourites to:

• hedge

• secure profit

• reduce volatility

It’s part of a bigger plan.

Why Bettors Love Underdogs

1. Huge Payouts

If an underdog with odds 5.00 wins,
your ₹100 → ₹500.

One win recovers many losses.

2. Upsets happen more often than people think

Sports are unpredictable:

• football red cards

• cricket collapses

• UFC lucky punches

• tennis injuries

• bad umpire calls

One bad moment → underdog wins.

3. Underdogs are undervalued by public money

Because the majority bets the favourite,
bookies inflate underdog odds to balance risk.

This creates value betting.

4. Smart bettors LOVE value, not safety

Pro bettors don’t care:
“Kaun jeetega?”

They care:
“Kaun bhaari odds ke hisaab se UNDERVALUED hai?”

Yahi real profit hota hai.

But Here’s the BIGGEST TRUTH Most Bettors Don’t Know

The favourite vs underdog choice is not about who wins more often…
it’s about who gives MORE PROFIT long-term.

Example:

• Favourites win 70% times

• But odds like 1.40 give low returns

Even after many wins → profit is tiny.

Underdogs win only 30% times
But odds like 4.00 or 5.00 can give MASSIVE jumps.

So sometimes:
Underdogs = More long-term profit
Favourites = Higher win percentage but lower ROI

What Sports Favour Betting Favourites?

Some sports are very predictable.

1. Tennis

Rankings matter.
Top players dominate lower ones.

Favourites win a LOT (especially top 10).
Perfect for favourite betting.

2. MMA/UFC (Top Level)

Massive mismatch?
Favourites win often.

But upset potential still exists.

3. Cricket (Limited Overs)

Better teams win more.
Condition-based but favourites perform better.

4. NBA

Superstar teams usually win.

5. Formula 1

One or two favourites dominate the entire season.

Favourite betting is strong in these sports.

What Sports Favour Betting Underdogs?

These sports are chaotic:

1. Football (Soccer)

The MOST unpredictable sport:

• low scoring

• one mistake changes result

• draws common

• any team can upset

Underdog bets can be extremely profitable.

2. UFC (Mid-tier Fights)

Lower-ranked fighters upset favourites regularly.

3. Cricket T20

T20 = chaos
One over changes everything.

Underdogs deliver huge value.

4. IPL

Perfect for underdog betting —
momentum swings are insane.

The Mathematical Breakdown That Decides Everything

Win % vs Odds %

This is where gamblers lose because they THINK:

• favourite wins more

• so favourite betting = profit

But it depends on odds accuracy.

Example:
Favourites win 70%
Odds = 1.40 (implies 71% expected probability)

NO VALUE.
You barely profit.

Underdog wins 30%
Odds = 4.00 (implies 25% expected probability)

VALUE EXISTS.

Smart bettors ALWAYS hunt value, not safety.

Favourite Betting: Pros & Cons

Benefits

• Higher win rate

• Safer psychologically

• Easier on bankroll

• Lower variance

• Good for beginners

• Perfect for parlays

Drawbacks

• Low profit

• One upset ruins the streak

• Odds often overrated

• Bookies inflate favourite odds because public loves them

Underdog Betting: Pros & Cons

Benefits

• Massive payouts

• You need fewer wins to profit

• Bookies undervalue many underdogs

• Perfect for value betting

• Smart bettors prefer it

Drawbacks

• More losing bets

• Mentally tough for casual bettors

• Upsets unpredictable

• Requires discipline

What Do Professional Gamblers Choose in 2026?

GamblingHood research shows:

1. Professionals bet BOTH favourites and underdogs.

But the key difference?

They bet only when:
the odds are WRONG.

They don’t bet:

• because a team is strong

• because a player is famous

• because fans love a team

• because social media hypes it

They hunt mispriced odds.

2. They avoid emotional bets

They don’t care:

• about their favourite team

• national pride

• popular players

Only VALUE matters.

3. They do NOT chase safe bets

Favourites are not “safe.”
Just lower variance.

Smart bettors ONLY bet favourites when:

• odds are not too low

• matchup is one-sided

• public hype hasn’t inflated odds

4. They do NOT blindly chase long shots

Underdogs are not “profit machines.”
You need discipline, bankroll, and clever spotting.

2026 Betting Strategy: What Actually Works

After analysing thousands of bets, millions of odds, and behavioural patterns, here is the GamblingHood Verified Strategy:

1. Bet favourites in predictable sports

• Tennis

• F1

• MMA main events

• Cricket ODIs

• Basketball with superstar teams

2. Bet underdogs in chaotic sports

• Football

• T20 cricket

• UFC undercards

• IPL

• Low-scoring matches

3. NEVER bet low odds blindly

Odds like 1.20, 1.25, 1.30
are bankroll killers.

One upset = 10 wins gone.

4. Underdogs should be taken with logic, not emotion

Take underdogs when:

• they have form

• the favourite is tired

• pitch/conditions favour them

• they have upset potential

• odds are mispriced

5. Use mixed strategy

The smartest bettors mix both:

• 60% favourites

• 40% underdogs

Depending on the sport.

Final Answer: Favourite or Underdog? (2026 Verdict)

If you want HIGH WIN RATE → Bet Favourites

BUT profit will be smaller.
Good for casual bettors.

If you want HIGH PROFIT → Bet Underdogs

BUT requires discipline and research.
Good for smart, patient bettors.

If you want REAL long-term success → MIX BOTH

This is how professionals win.

Conclusion

Sports betting in 2026 is not about favourites vs underdogs.
It is about value vs no value.

Favourites give:

• stability

• confidence

• frequent wins

Underdogs give:

• huge payouts

• long-term ROI

• hidden value

But the REAL champion bettor is the one who:

• trusts data

• ignores emotions

• understands odds

• picks battles wisely

This was your GamblingHood Exclusive 2026 Deep Dive on favourites vs underdogs.